Search Site



Advanced Search


 
Product No. 99634 Supplementary Print Price: FREE with membership
 

Probability in Contested Election (UMAP)

Dennis C. Gilliland


Mathematics Topic:
Probability, Statistics
Application Areas:
Political science, law
Prerequisites:
Knowledge of discrete probability; methods of moments, convolutions, and the normal distribution.

| ©1984 by COMAP, Inc. | Tools for Teaching | 14 pages |


In this module the 1975 mayoral election in the city of Flint, Michigan is analyzed. True vote is estimated with an estimator which is used in randomized response models. Students learn an application of a simple discrete probability model, and reinforce knowledge concerning mean, standard deviation, the binomial distribtuion, independence, and convolution.

Table of Contents:

INTRODUCTION

FACTS CONCERNING THE FLINT ELECTION

A MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE TRUE VOTE

CRITIQUE AND COMMENTS

RESOLUTION OF THE PRESENT CASE

EXERCISES

REFERENCES

SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES