Population Dynamics of Governmental Bureaus (UMAP)

Author: Thomas W. Casstevens

This module presents, calibrates, and tests a mathematical model of the birth and death of bureaucratic units - briefly, bureaus - in the executive departments (outside the defense and postal services) of the national government of the United States. The model formalizes the popular notion that bureaus proliferate like rabbits, i.e. exponentially.

Table of Contents:

1. INTRODUCTION

2. DATA

3. MODEL

4. GROWTH = BIRTHS - DEATHS

5. ESTIMATION

6. BIRTHS

7. DEATHS

8. INTERLUDE

9. AGES

10. PROBABILITY

11. MEMORY

12. LOGISTIC?

13. CONCLUSION

14. ANSWERS TO EXERCISES