The Coming Great Pall of China: Demography of a One-Child Family

Introduction

This department of The UMAP Journal is devoted to the final step in mathematical modeling: comparing the properties and predictions of a model with what actually happens in reality.

This article performs that step for a model devised more than 30 years ago for the population of China. Of course, over so long a period of time, a model's predictions are likely to diverge from reality.

Nevertheless, the divergence of this model from reality accomplishes what a model is supposed to do:

give insight into the phenomenon modeled.

This model for the population of China sheds light on what has really happened in China over the years with regard to its one-child policy: namely,

the one-child policy was never completely implemented; but even so, it will achieve its announced purpose.

The model predicts a Great Pall of China: the dark cloud of a precipitous population decline-unless the fertility ratio increases substantially very soon. The consequence will be enormous economic and social dislocations.