The Geometry of an Arms Race (UMAP)

With completion of this module students will be able to: 1) understand some basic concepts in game theory; 2) apply these concepts to the analysis of arms races and other two-person conflict situations; 3) derive consequences of extended play of different games and game scenarios; 4) illustrate these consequences geometrically (graphically); 5) state policy implications of the analysis; and 6) justify normative judgments based on the analysis.

Table of Contents:

1. INTRODUCTION

2. PRISONERS' DILEMMA AND THE ARMS RACE

3. INTRODUCING DETECTION PROBABILITIES

4. EQUALIZING THE DETECTION PROBABILITIES

5. WHEN IS CONDITIONAL COOPERATION RATIONAL?

6. POLICY IMPLICATIONS

7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

8. ANSWERS TO EXERCISES

9. REFERENCES